How long until the first particle is found?

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Alastes
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How long until the first particle is found?

Post by Alastes »

I'm betting it doesn't take more than a few weeks after the launch of the VM that the first one is found. With all the interest in Stardust@Home I'm sure there will be thousands of people using the VM at all times of the day. Of course, I plan on being the first to find one. :D
I would go swimming in your intellect, but the waters are far too shallow.

alexander
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Post by alexander »

Well, they are expecting the scanning to take about half a year. With somewhere between 40 to 100 dust grains on the collector someone should find a particle at least once a week, probably more often.

brandofo
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Post by brandofo »

Yep, it should be around 2 or 3 particles per week, maybe more in the first couple weeks if there are a greater number of people participating.

martinbogo
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Post by martinbogo »

Why is such a low particle count expected? The aerogels from MIR showed lots of impacts, or is that a question of particle density differences between earth orbit and out there in interplanetary space?

-Martin

Siegfried
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Post by Siegfried »

martinbogo wrote:Why is such a low particle count expected? The aerogels from MIR showed lots of impacts, or is that a question of particle density differences between earth orbit and out there in interplanetary space?

-Martin
Major differences. I don't think Mir was out looking for Stardust, and if it was, it didn't find any because after all, the Berkely team hasn't any examples of a true stardust trail.
And God said: E = +mv^2 - Ze^2/r ...and there *WAS* light!

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SBridgeford
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How Long will it take to find the first one?

Post by SBridgeford »

We need more data before an answer can be determined.

How many movies will initially be released?
How fast will new data sets, i.e. movies, be released?
How many people will be searching the released data sets?
How fast can that number of people search the available movies?
How long will it take the searchers to develop the necessary skills to actually spot a trace? I ran through the tutorial tonight and it does not look like its going to be all the easy to spot them. I think we are going to have a great many false positives as eager searchers report findings that later prove to by in error.
Which leads to the next question: How are the reported finding verified and how long will that take?
As well as, how many people will be viewing the same movie at a time. Most <fill in the blank>@home projects have multiple computers running the same work units. It generally takes 3 or more systems to report with result before a data set is closed out and credits assigned.

If someone has the necessary math skills perhaps a "Drake's" formula could be created to calculate the variable and arrive at an intelligent and meaningful value. Or we would just wait and see :D .

The Spice Must Flow.

littlebhawk
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Post by littlebhawk »

martinbogo wrote:Why is such a low particle count expected? The aerogels from MIR showed lots of impacts, or is that a question of particle density differences between earth orbit and out there in interplanetary space?

-Martin
Well that considering that MIR was orbiting Earth with the aerogel, and you may know of the space debris from past missions that weve had into space. There are over 100,000 debris that are orbiting earth and are larger then 4 inches in diameter which are being tracked by radar here on Earth. An estimated 150,000 debris are less then 4 inches. So imagine how many debris may be a few microns wide. Although when are so small they are supposed to be pushed away from the sun by the pressure of radiation. Out in space Stardust was going through "pure" interstellar dust, but unfortunately for us there are less particles out there and so we captured what we could.

cmullin
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How long?

Post by cmullin »

If the particle is in the released data, I predict it will take less than 1 hour to find the first particle!
It appears that the release of microscope movies will be the limiting factor in finding particles. The team estimated it would take 20,000 hours of searching to scan the entire gel (including redundancy), and the six-month figure they mentioned was before they knew what kind of respone they'd get. With 100,000 people preregistered :shock: and their estimate of 2 hours of searching per week by each volunteer, then the ENTIRE SEARCH should take less than two days! That assumes that all the movies are available at the launch, and also that their servers can handle a thousand viewers at a time.
Don't be surprised if their website response is a bit slow after launch...

cmullin

Siegfried
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Post by Siegfried »

And then you have to take into account that everyone will spend a good deal of time on one movie, and then if something might be found it has to be verified which will take several days.
And God said: E = +mv^2 - Ze^2/r ...and there *WAS* light!

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Bosniac
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Post by Bosniac »

I'm pessimistic about finding one, first because they are soo exotic, and second because there will probably be hundreds of people looking at the same time. I'll have to rest with alian life forms floating in vacuum... boring :lol:
You see things; and you say Why? But I dream things that never were; and I say Why not? (B.S.)

Siegfried
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Post by Siegfried »

I don't seriously EXPECT to find one. I still overestimate my chances, though.
And God said: E = +mv^2 - Ze^2/r ...and there *WAS* light!

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DustBuster
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First Stardust Particle Found!

Post by DustBuster »

You can all rest easy now. I found the first particle while perusing some images on the server. I also realized George Foreman had invented the perfect naming system years ago.
Here for your astonishment and awe, I give you the first StarDust particle:


Image

Nikita
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Post by Nikita »

Now why didn't I see that?!? :lol:
From dust we come

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